Analyst warns US withdrawal could expand Iran’s influence in Iraq

Investigative journalist and Honorary Research Fellow Bamo Nouri said the end of the American military presence in Iraq could represent a major shift in the balance of power inside the country. His remarks were reported in a France 24 video published on October 2, 2026.

Nouri said Iraq’s formal sovereignty was not the only issue at stake. He argued that the country’s ability to exercise that sovereignty would also depend on its political cohesion, security capacity and economic independence.

According to Nouri, Iran’s influence in Iraq is already established through political parties, armed groups, economic networks and the financial system. He said Tehran’s influence therefore does not depend on maintaining a conventional military presence, and that the removal of the United States as a counterweight could provide Iran-backed groups with greater room to operate.

Nouri also pointed to uncertainty for Iraq’s Kurdish region, which he said had relied heavily on American military, intelligence and air-defence support. He warned that the withdrawal could intensify Iran’s role in Iraq and make efforts toward political and economic reform more difficult. The source does not provide details on the withdrawal’s timing, scale or confirmed consequences.