ENVIRONMENT

PBL says Dutch aviation may face an end to falling airfares

Air travel to and from the Netherlands may be entering a period in which fares no longer follow their historical downward trend, according to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. The agency says decarbonization and capacity limits are likely to reshape growth in the country’s mature aviation market.

Illustrative photo · Photo by Martijn Stoof · Pexels

The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, known as PBL, says Dutch aviation is facing what it describes as a paradigm shift. Air travel to and from the Netherlands has historically been associated with declining airfares, but that trend is likely to reverse, according to the agency.

PBL links the expected change to two factors identified in its long-term outlook: decarbonization and limits on aviation capacity. The agency says these pressures will reshape the growth of air travel in the Netherlands.

The outlook concerns a mature market, although the supplied information does not provide specific forecasts for passenger numbers, ticket prices, emissions, airport capacity, or the timing of any change. It also does not identify particular airports, airlines, routes, or policy measures.

PBL published the outlook on January 27, 2026. The available material does not state whether the expected reversal in airfare trends is presented as a forecast under specific assumptions or as a broader assessment of the sector’s direction.

THE QUESTIONS THIS EVENT LEAVES BEHIND

Which capacity limits are expected to have the greatest effect on Dutch aviation growth?

How would higher airfares affect people who currently rely on low-cost air travel?

Who would bear the costs of decarbonizing aviation if fares rise?

What assumptions underpin the expectation that declining airfares will reverse?

Could capacity constraints shift travel demand to other transport modes or destinations?

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2 October 2026 · 17:43 · 1 sources

Sources

PBL — Long-term outlook for Dutch aviation: the end of cheap flying? Decarbonization and capacity limits will reshape air travel growth in a mature market