Could a Small Uncertainty Create a Large Behavior Change?
People adapt not only to outcomes, but also to possibilities.
A traveler is only slightly unsure whether a train ticket is valid and arrives at the station thirty minutes early just in case.
The hidden mechanism is precaution expansion. When uncertainty exists, people often create safety margins that exceed the size of the original doubt.
The uncertainty itself may be small.
What changes behavior is often not the risk, but the possibility that the risk cannot be ruled out.
